Recent progress in quantum calculation, including improving the number of Qubit, the time of coherence and the gate loyalty, has to provide a practical advantage over conventional computers.
This was the conclusion of the Forrester report on quantum calculation 2024.
Quantum systems remain experimental and are unable to provide extensive results needed to rivalry with traditional computational methods. Forrester analysts so far believe that although massive progress has been made, there is still a real breakthrough with technology. But it’s just a matter of time. When this breakthrough comes, it will bring an opportunity, as well as challenges, dangerous new cyber threats. The Global Risk Institute estimates that by 2030 the probability of 11% to 31% will be that quantum computers will be able to break the most common cryptographic methods.
Many experts predict that in the real world, widespread applications of quantum calculation are still at least ten years, but it seems inevitable. So much that the industry is already talking about post-quantum computing (PQC).
This applies to the era of computer technology, which will follow the extended use of quantum computers, especially in terms of cryptography. Since quantum computers become more powerful, they will be able to break current encryption methods widely used to secure data online. PQC focuses on the development of new cryptographic algorithms that are safe against quantum attacks.
The aim of these new algorithms, known as Quantum cryptography, creates encryption systems that remain safe, even if quantum computers are able to solve complex mathematical problems that classic computers cannot. The field is essential because it prepares current cryptographic systems for the advent of quantum computers and ensures that data remains protected in a world with quantum.
Avisshai Sharlin, presidential division, product and network in the multinational technology company AMDOCS, believes that PQC is likely to take a big step forward in 2025, as businesses and governments will begin to receive quantum secure to ensure their data.
National Institute of Standards and Technologies
In August 2024, he officially completed the first set of encryption algorithms designed to withstand the potential threats of quantum computers, in August 2024 the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST). These include algorithms such as cyber (for key exchange), ntra (also for key exchange) and Frodok. These standards mean a significant step in the field of security of digital communication and data against progress in quantum calculations that have the potential to disrupt the current cryptographic system and ECC.
“Since NIST has completed the key algorithms needed for PQC, companies will soon integrate them into their security systems,” Sharlin says. “This step will also require updates such as Java 21+, which is necessary to manage encryption keys for quantum. For industrial industries dealing with sensitive information, the transition to quantum technology will be decisive when staying in front of nostrous cyber safety fibers. ”
Nist says three new standards are built for the future. “Quantum computing technology is developing rapidly,” says Nist spokesman. “And some experts predict that the device with the ability to break current encryption methods could occur over the decade, threatening the safety and privacy of individuals, organizations and nations.”
According to the Minister of Commerce for Standards and Technology and Director of NIST Laurie E. Locascio, he says: “Quantum computer technology could become a force to solve many of the most unsolvable problems of the company and new standards deal with NIST commitment to ensure that security is not disturbed at the same time.
“These finalized standards are Capstone of NIST efforts to protect our intimate electronic information.”
Sharlin agrees that these new standards are essential. “I think it’s very important,” he explains. “First of all, now there is a standard that you can ask or ask the industry to keep it. This is important because then you can say “I expect to support this standard and this protocol, and by then I expect to get to the next level” and so on.
“The fact that the industry begins to align is therefore very important. And if these standards did not exist and should not be equal, it would be more like a alarm without a real panacea – without everything that can help you solve them.
“Then you would see a hybrid solution, a proprietary solution, or ad hoc solutions that try to bridge the gap.” Now that there is a standard, now that you know you can accept it, I believe you will see different retailers around it. ”
However, there are many challenges that the organization faces in attempts to switch to quantum computer technology and integrate quantum safe encryption.
“I would say that everything begins with an understanding that there is a threat,” Sharlin explains. “Many organizations say that quantum computers will only come in 2030, perhaps even later.
“You hear some of the mega players say,” Yes, it’s a threat, but you still have many, many years before it comes, so you can relax a little “. I think it’s starting there.
“The first thing the organization should do is understand that the threat is real and is close. It is not in the sense that it comes and relatively fast.
“Second, assuming we have consciousness, what can be done?” You must map your applications. You need to understand how big the threat is, and you need to understand what encryption algorithms are used and in what form and form. I use Java? I use Kubernetes? And then I need methods for them. If my software is running on Kubernetes, I will need a new edition of Kubernetes to support PQC algorithms that can help me. If I run Oracle JDK, I will need the latest version of the software.
“I generally have to know what I have.” I have to map my applications and my work floor and my work protocols and I will have to set a clear understanding of what needs to be done for each of them.
“We know that some of these elements are available on the market today. But we are talking about consciousness, we are talking about mapping, and we must also understand that at the moment I will have to start implementing it. So I have to know what I need to implement and when it is available on the market so I can accept it.
“If I now need to refract my Entitire applications, it’s a mega effort, so you’re beginning to see that postponing awareness and mapping and everhything, it’s a big exercise.” It is something similar to what happened in 2000.
It will be increasingly needed to accept the skills that are rare on the market today. According to Sharlin, education and centers of excellence will be required to help organizations prepa.
“Another big problem is to start building your skills,” he explains. “Shortness of awareness that you need to set up a skill to be ready is available to the receiver software, and then you have to introduce a plan.” So I would call 2025 a year you need to map your applications. Understand where weaknesses are, map dependencies, process and make the organization start to reconcile and map what needs to be repaired, which applications. What is the priority? When do we believe things will happen in terms of software to support it?
“And this is preparation.” In some pockets, you will begin to see the PQC solution, and then it means that you can start experiments, train your people and understand the consequences. ”
Risk factor
Is it something that all organizations should be interested in? Sharlin believes that the government and the army will be the first to accept PQC and ensure that the data is and is protective.
“Then you get into very important heavy lifting surfaces such as insurance and banking, definitely Telcos,” he says. “I see to come, but a person working in a very small shop will be the last priority.” However, businesses will be a risk factor.
“We have to remember that most of the risks can not be the latest and the largest technology with the new startups that have recently launched. It lies on heavy lifting companies that use many applications with old versions of Java and old versions of various encryption technologies. These must change. ”
Cyber security is one of the most frustrating areas in which it is to work.
“Maybe one threat a day would be a good day,” he says. “Ussully it’s like 100 new threats every day.” I don’t see the end. The threats are there and even greater threats come from nations rather than just individuals. The threats are increasingly difficult to stop. The state of the mind of cyber security should penetrate. Therefore, you need to understand what happens as soon as it is revealed.
“This dictates the way you run and the way you protect your assets. This is something that Quantum Computing will surely interrupt. All virtual currencies. They all use encryption. It can be broken. Suddenly it is like someone has gained access to your bank account. So they will also need some changes to be protected.
“I’m not saying that their protection is not dirty, but it will also require some attention.” Bitcoins of the world will also have to learn from this era. ”
Computer technology is expected to help the company and their data safe as the prevalence of quantum swing and related attacks is expected. But it will be just a new and important tool in the CSO tool. Cyber security teams and their expertise will remain necessary.
According to Sharlin, it is a struggle between good and evil. “The work wasn’t over,” he warns. “And this will not end PQC, because not everyone will migrate in time, and there will still be Mary gaps that can be used, perhaps not in the fact that they are – maybe in others.” Cyber will not disappear. ”
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